As the countdown to the Bank of England’s crucial decision day on interest rates enters its final stretch, the economy is displaying signs of a rapid cooling that have ignited concerns among experts and analysts alike.
Scheduled for September 21, the decision will determine whether the cost of borrowing will be further escalated. With just four weeks left, the landscape is clouded with speculation and uncertainty.
Forecasts Rerouted Amid Economic Slowdown
Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets, articulated the prevailing sentiment: “It’s still four weeks until Bank of England policymakers decide on whether to increase the cost of borrowing again and the economy is already cooling fast.” While the interest rate hikes have been effective in addressing certain issues, they have also inadvertently triggered a substantial decline in economic activity. Streeter goes on to suggest that “expectations are rising that mild recession is on the way.” The aftermath of the swift rate hikes is starting to manifest, and the business environment is bearing the brunt of the impact.
The most recent Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading, specifically the flash UK composite PMI, revealed a concerning figure of 47.9 for this month. Crossing below the 50 mark, this figure signifies contraction and represents the lowest level observed in two and a half years. This abrupt turn of events has prompted a reevaluation of initial predictions regarding the trajectory of interest rates. The prevailing market consensus, fueled by robust wage growth in July, still points towards another rate hike in September to reach 5.5%. However, Streeter highlights that the prospect of two more rate hikes, driving the rate to 5.75% by the end of the year, remains the prevailing sentiment among experts.
Streeter, however, emphasizes the volatility inherent in economic forecasts:
“Forecasts can change very quickly and interest rate expectations may well be revised lower again if fresh data on the jobs market points to a further rise in unemployment and recruiters indicate employers are becoming even more cautious about hiring staff.”
Real Estate and Savings Rates Navigate Uncertainty
The specter of these shifting economic tides casts ripples across various sectors, including real estate and savings. Sarah Coles, Head of Personal Finance, suggests that the PMI data has initiated recalibrations in the market, causing it to adjust expectations from three rate hikes to two, along with a projected lower peak. While immediate effects might be minimal for those on variable rate mortgages, Coles underscores the potential long-term ramifications: “It’s likely to mean that the future feels a bit less daunting – because their rate is likely to be hiked less in the coming months.”
For those considering fixed-rate mortgage deals, Coles presents a silver lining. As these mortgages hinge on the swaps market, where banks exchange variable rates for fixed ones, decreasing rate expectations could trigger a drop in swap rates, potentially making fixed-rate mortgages more affordable. However, Coles tempers expectations, noting that substantial changes will be contingent on the market’s anticipation of rate cuts, a scenario unlikely to materialize soon.
The impact of evolving rate forecasts isn’t confined to mortgages alone. Mark Hicks, Head of Active Savings, delves into the world of savings rates. The shift in expectations has already influenced the pricing landscape, causing banks to reconsider their offerings, particularly on one-year fixed-term deposits. Hicks explains that these rates mirror swap rates, which factor in predictions of rate hikes. Should these predictions dwindle further, clients might soon find their last opportunity to lock in elevated savings rates of 6%.
As decision day inches closer, the economic landscape remains shrouded in uncertainty. The confluence of rate hikes, economic cooling, and the evolving forecasts creates an intricate web that financial experts and businesses alike must navigate. The world will be watching closely on September 21 when the Bank of England’s choice could steer the course for the nation’s economic future.