The Global Currency Forecast 2015 by Scandinavian Capital Markets (SCM).
The outlook for the EURUSD in 2014 was for the prices to move within a 1.2753-1.4225 zone with a downside break of 1.2753 favoring further price decline to 1.2319 followed by 1.2185, and 1.2050. The range for EURUSD in 2014 was 1.2096-1.3992 and the pair closed at the low of 1.2096 and more importantly well below the 200 month simple moving average (SMA) which is at 1.2237. For 2015, the EURUSD risk remains for further price decline in the weeks and months ahead as a monthly open and lower close below the 200 month SMA will confirm further price decline to 1.1580, 1.1423, 1.1295, 1.1096 and 1.0033. As to the upside, only a monthly open and higher close above 1.3322 will confirm further rise is once again underway initially targeting 1.3522 and the 2014 high of 1.3992.
GBPUSD fall continues to unfold as our November 2014 outlook confirmed a weekly open and lower close below the 200 week simple moving average (1.6032) would witness further price decline to 1.5721, 1.5373 and eventually 1.4812. November prices closed at 1.5641, below the 1.5721 prior target as our December outlook confirmed lower prices was underway to 1.5373 and 1.4812 in the weeks that followed. December prices opened 1.5641 and closed 1.5577 thus confirming continued decline to 1.5371. As of this writing, GBPUSD has reahed 1.5324 and remains offered into the months and weeks ahead. For 2015, GBPUSD risk remains for significant price decline as a weekly open and lower close below 1.5373 followed by a monthly open and lower close below 1.5373 will confirm continued downside risk to 1.4812, 1.3904 and 1.3623 into the months ahead. As to the upside, only a monthly open and higher close above 1.6037 will turn the outlook to neutral with modest upside risk to 1.6477. Currently, we continue to hold GBPUSD September 2, 2014 short trade from 1.6565 for 1.4812, 1.3904 and 1.3523 targets.
AUDUSD’s fall from the April 2013 high remains active as prices will continue to move lower in the week’s and month’s ahead with the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at 0.7780 as the next downside target. As to the upside, only a monthly open and higher close above 0.9334 will turn the outlook to neutral with modest upside risk to 0.9629. For 2015, AUDUSD will continue to move lower as USD makes broad gains with an AUDUSD monthly open and lower close below 0.7780 confirming further downside risk to 0.7203 followed by 0.6006.
For 2015 USDJPY will likely continue to move higher with 122.55, 124.13 and 128.83 as the next upside targets into the weeks and months ahead while only a monthly open and lower close below 99.48 will turn the outlook to neutral with modest downside risk to follow.
The multi-month rise from 6.3221 continues to unfold as risk remains for further price rise in the weeks and months ahead is favorable. For January 2015, look for a monthly open above 7.6662 and higher close to confirm further price rise is underway to 8.0492 followed by 8.5375 and 9.3270 in the months ahead. As to the downside, only a month open and lower close below 7.2585 would turn the outlook to neutral with modest downside risk to 7.0827.
USDCAD rise from 0.9405 continues to unfold with 1.2199, 1.2323, and 1.3062 as the next upside targets in the month ahead. For 2015, look for a monthly open and higher close above 1.2323 to confirm further price extension to 1.3062, while to the downside, only a monthly open and lower close below 1.0335 would change our outlook to neutral.
UAXUSD – Spot Gold
Gold continues to consolidate the multi-year rise from $212 as 2015 will witness prices consolidating within a $889-1,526 zone as a sustained break of this zone will witness further price extension in the direction of the break. For 2015, look for $889-$1,526 range as a month open and lower close below $889 will witness further price decline to $777.41 followed by $645.94. As to the upside, a monthly open and higher close above $1,526.85 will confirm further price rise is once again underway initially targeting $1,637.83 and 1,745.90. Though still in a multi month consolidation phase, the spot gold market remains net long as this net long sentiment could witness a very painful downside correction or squeeze similar to that recently witnessed with crude oil prices. Look for a monthly open and lower close below $654.53 to witness a dramatic decline or near collapse of the gold market with prices eventually reaching $263.45.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Barring any significant cuts in production from OPEC or any geo-political events which could impact oil prices, crude oil prices will remain low throughout 2015 and risk for further price decline towards $33 is favorable. For 2015, look for a WTI monthly open below $52 and lower close to support further price decline to $33.18 while to the upside only a monthly open and higher close above $86.40 will remove any downside risk.
Scandinavian Capital Markets SCM is a Sweden based asset and fund manager founded 2010. The company was founded by a group of traders and former portfolio managers to help investors diversify their portfolios and provide a profitable alternative to other asset classes with risk-adjusted returns. The company’s global wealth management seeks to identify and capitalize on intermediate-term price movements in a broad range of major currencies through global macro investing using a combination of fundamental, technical and systemic trading. The company is registered under Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen)
The team has based on several years of research and trading effectively developed automated and discretionary strategies that incorporate macro-economic views and technical analysis that seek not only to outperform major benchmark and stock indices but also to generate uncorrelated and risk-adjusted returns that offer true diversification.
The investment group consists of a highly competent trading team of currency traders, market analysts and skilled portfolio managers including former Head of Portfolios from Barclays, Citigroup and Lloyds TSB. The team utilizes more than 25 years of trading experience within the banking and institutional investment sector which has made it well suited to generate risk-adjusted returns irrespective of market climate.
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