Alt-season is typically defined as a stretch when at least 75 % of the top-50 cryptocurrencies (excluding Bitcoin) outperform BTC over a 90-day period. As of mid-July 202, the Altcoin Season Index sits at 49/100—close, but not yet an official alt-season.
This article cover a quick overview of Bitcoin’s market share and the Altcoin Season Index. It then looks at the main reasons driving investors toward riskier assets, including changes in macroeconomic liquidity and July’s major token unlocks.
Why does BTC dominance matter?
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap. A sustained drop signals that capital is rotating into higher-beta altcoins, one of the clearest technical precursors to broad alt rallies.. This influx of liquidity boosts altcoin prices and trading volumes, creating positive feedback as traders chase higher returns and narratives shift toward outperforming sectors. As more alternative coins (alts) outperform Bitcoin over several weeks, the market mood becomes very positive, leading to a period where many altcoins do well.
Where the Crypto Market Stands Now
Bitcoin dominance has hovered between ≈60 % (CoinMarketCap live feed) and 66 %—still high, but sliding from its Q2 peaks. The Altcoin Season Index sits at 49 / 100, meaning we are just shy of a 90-day “official” alt-season, though the 30-day Altcoin Month score is 86 — altcoins have clearly outperformed BTC over the past month.
Analysts note a TOTAL3 (crypto-market-cap ex-BTC & ETH) breakout setup that mirrors 2017 & 2021 pre-alt-season patterns
July 2025 looks like a transition month, not full-blown alt-season yet, but the conditions (moderating BTC dominance, sector narratives, and fresh liquidity) are falling into place.
How long does an alt-season last?
Historically, altseasons run 6 to 14 weeks, though the strongest upside often appears in the first 3-5 weeks before momentum cools.
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Should I swap all my BTC for alts now?
No. Keep a core BTC/ETH position for stability and add altcoin exposure gradually, only as technical confirmation (e.g., BTC.D < 60 % and TOTAL3 breakout) appears.
Which on-chain metrics help confirm alt-season?
Watch for a rising TOTAL3 chart (crypto-market-cap minus BTC & ETH), surging altcoin trading volumes, and social-media “dominance” shifting from Bitcoin to leading alt sectors.
Do token unlocks kill rallies?
Not necessarily. The price impact depends on the unlocked amount versus the circulating supply, who receives the tokens, and market liquidity. Unlock days can create tactical dip-buy opportunities when fundamentals remain solid.
What sectors led past alt-seasons?
- 2017: ICOs
- 2021: DeFi and NFTs
- Early 2025: AI-related chains, Layer-2/modular infrastructure, and real-world-asset (RWA) protocols
How do I protect gains?
Use laddered stop-losses, take profits in brackets (e.g., 30-50 %), avoid oversized positions in illiquid small caps, and store assets in hardware wallets or audited custodians.
Is July 2025 definitely the start?
The market shows a high-probability setup, but confirmation still hinges on BTC.D breaking below 60 % and alt-cap (TOTAL3) sustaining a technical breakout. Monitor these metrics daily before assuming the alt-season has begun.
Catalysts Driving the Altcoin Season Buzz
Here are some factors and events currently generating excitement and attention in the cryptocurrency market, particularly affecting alternative cryptocurrencies.
| Catalyst | Why It Matters |
Liquidity tailwinds | Central-bank hints at late-2025 easing could push investors toward higher-beta alts. |
| Major conferences | ETHCC 8, Web3 Summit Berlin, Bitcoin Alaska & others keep dev and VC attention (and media flow) squarely on alt-ecosystems this month. |
| Large token unlocks | $455 M TRUMP, $187 M CIRX, and several mid-cap unlocks land mid-July, injecting both volatility and entry points. |
Narrative rotation | AI-powered chains (e.g., TAO, NEAR, RNDR) and DePIN/Fast-finality L2s have led June-July gains, signalling traders’ appetite for “next wave” tech. |
| Memecoin resurgence | First-week July saw PENGU (+69 %), BONK, FARTCOIN sprint ahead despite shaky macros—classic risk-on behaviour early in alt-seasons. |
Altcoin Sectors to Watch
These specific categories or groups within the broader cryptocurrency market are currently gaining interest or showing potential for growth.
- Layer-2 & Modular Infrastructure:
High throughput, lower fees, and renewed ETH roadmap clarity keep names like OP, ARB, AVAIL in focus (note unlock dates above). - AI & Data Economy Tokens
Bittensor (TAO), Near, Render, and The Graph continue to post double-digit MoM growth as enterprise AI demand spills into Web3. - Real-World-Asset (RWA) Protocols
Major banks’ tokenization pilots in H1’25 hint at tailwinds for projects such as ONDO and PXLT once liquidity broadens. - DePIN / Decentralized Wireless & Storage
Long-dormant names Helium, Filecoin, and Arweave have bounced >25 % since late June, as on-chain data shows rising usage quotas. - Meme & Culture Coins
Historically the risk-on accelerant July’s PENGU/BONK run suggests this pocket is heating again, but be ready for extreme reversals.
Altcoin Season Strategy Playbook for July-August
| Step | Why & How |
Track BTC.D & TOTAL3 daily | A decisive BTC dominance break below 60 % or TOTAL3 close above its parallel-channel roof would be the technical “go” signal. |
| Scale-in, don’t FOMO | Build positions in tranches; alt-seasons often open with sharp pullbacks that punish late entries. |
Diversify by narrative | Blend “blue-chip” alts (ETH, SOL, ADA) with 2-3 thematic baskets (AI, L2, RWA) rather than 20 random tickers. |
| Respect unlock calendars | Treat large unlock days as potential dip-buy zones only if fundamentals remain intact. |
Set profit brackets | Historical alt-seasons show 30 – 50 % profit-taking tranches outperform “hold-to-moon” approaches. |
| Secure funds | Use hardware wallets or audited custodians; exchange hacks spike when volumes explode. |
Risks & Caveats to July Altseason
Let’s review potential issues and warnings that could affect the Altseason occurring in July.
- Regulatory shocks: The U.S. “Genius Act” not being signed into law can nuke sentiment overnight.
- Whale distribution: Many top-10 wallets still hold 20–50 % of float in smaller caps. You should watch on-chain flows.
- Macroeconomic reversals: Faster-than-expected tightening would stall the fledgling rotation.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
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