Economist John Maynard Keynes said, “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipation of others”. Some 70 years after Keynes, we now have deep learning technology which helps us do just that – anticipate the anticipation of others.
Applying this technology to look at the behaviour of Nike’s investors reveals a number of features.
Firstly, Nike’s longer term investor behaviour is currently bullish, but this is weakening. Nike’s stock price (currently around USD 80) is at the upper bounds of the target price implied from the behaviour of Nike’s longer term investors. Irithmics estimates there’s a 5% likelihood of this implied target price being above USD 80 and it’s reasonably likely to expect some rebalancing associated with this.
Secondly, Nike’s shorter term traders are more bearish. Irithmics estimates the median target price implied from the behaviour of shorter term traders to be around USD 77.
Finally, Nike’s investors are currently showing behaviour which suggests they are very sensitive to news and in particular to negative news.
As an aside, it’s interesting to see that Irithmics considers Nike’s vulnerability to selling by systematic strategies or shorting to have increased since Aug 31.